Neighborhood Trend For 2014
Fewer homes sold in Pruneyard Dry Creek in 2014 than over the past two years. Sold prices were up year-over-year as the number of houses available for sale in Pruneyard Dry Creek declines, heading into the Spring 2015 selling season.This neighborhood of 1700 custom-built homes on tree-lined quiet streets has one of the lowest turnover rates in Santa Clara County, largely populated by retiring boomers reluctant to relocate elsewhere.
While it is true that homes west of Leigh Avenue are located in Campbell (950 homes) and homes east of Leigh Avenue to Meridian Ave are located in San Jose (745 homes), neighborhood children attend the same schools: Blackford Elementary, Campbell Middle, and Del Mar High.
Fewer Homes Sold In Pruneyard Dry Creek By Numbers
For 2014 (70c), fewer homes sold in Pruneyard Dry Creek than in 2013 (91c) and 2012 (81c).
The highest price paid for a home in this neighborhood was $2.85M in 2014, $2.15M in 2013 and $1.95M in 2012.
The percentage of homes sold within ten days-on-market (DOM) was 44.3% in 2014 and 42.9% in 2013.
The median sold price for 2014 rose 14.3% year-over-year and the average sales price rose 11% year-over-year.
Six homes in Pruneyard Dry Creek (4950+sf homes on 13,000+sf lots) sold for more than $2M in 2014.
For the past two years, homes sold on popular streets like McBain Avenue (13), Patio Drive (12c), Ridgeley Drive (12c) and Dry Creek Road (11c) exhibited an unusually high turnover rate for the neighborhood. A handful of homes on East Campbell and El Solyo Avenues exhibited an above-average turnover rate in 2014 as well.
Aging in Place
In a 2005 survey by AARP, 89 percent of people age 50 and older said they would prefer to remain in their home indefinitely as they age.
We can definitely understand the desire to stay around family and friends and to continue to live in a community one has become accustomed to.
Another reason for owners not selling is the capital gains tax. One of my fellow agents just sold a home for over $1,000,000 that the owners had bought for $45,000. I know, nice gain! But after the $500,000 exclusion, if you file a joint return with your spouse, they have to pay the tax on the rest.
Unfortunately for the younger generation, the downside is there are fewer homes for sale.
Which is what we have been seeing for the past few years. Inventory has been dropping to unprecedented levels.
Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down to 492 units listed in the MLS as of January 5th.
The average number of homes listed per month from 2000 through 2013 was 5,134.
A Quick Look Ahead
Typically, fewer listings and sales occur in Pruneyard Dry Creek for the month of January. The number of new listings rise in Spring and buyers have more choices, although the number of sales tend to overtake new listings in January, as shown below.
As shown in the following graph, the number of active listings is in decline for the Pruneyard Dry Creek neighborhood, based on January listings year-over-year. This trend is likely to continue in 2015.
As shown below, the average selling price for homes in Pruneyard Dry Creek is likely to continue higher in 2015, though subdued somewhat as homebuyers with school-aged children show stronger interest in San Tomas Aquino and Central Park neighborhoods where API scores for public schools rank appreciably higher.
As sown below, the List Price ratio rises as the number of homes available for sale declines throughout the year. But this is only part of the story…
The number of homes for sale is in decline, even as prices continue to rise in Pruneyard Dry Creek. A reliable measure of demand appears to be constrained by a lack of inventory. Nevertheless, demand for homes in this desirable neighborhood remains constant.
An Emerging Niche
Demand for large custom homes on generous lots exists, even though fewer homes sold in Pruneyard Dry Creek in 2014. Demand for new homes exists as well, especially so for Tuscan- and Craftsman-style homes on large lots. The niche market for such homes is noticeable in Pruneyard Dry Creek and Willow Glen. New(er) Craftsman-style homes sell faster and for higher prices than other styles lately, which helps explain why several builders choose to raze older homes and replace them with new Craftsman-style homes in Pruneyard Dry Creek and Willow Glen.